The Usual Disclaimers
- Projections attempt to simulate what the selection committee would do given what we know about each team. This is not my opinion of the teams, this is my prediction of the committee’s opinion.
- This bracketology is a snapshot, frozen in time. It does not aim to predict what will happen; it is a simulation of what would happen if the season ended today.
- Projections made based on NET data entering Monday but win-loss records entering Tuesday
Clusters/Seed List
Reader, judgment week is upon us. Fates will unravel, truths will be revealed, and destinies will be fulfilled.
In lieu of a column or bullet points, I’m providing a far more detailed version of my seed list for this bracketology update. You may recall from my 2023 Final Bracketology post that I like to conceptually sort teams into clusters as a first approximation for what the committee will do. Clusters get to the heart of where teams stand, how high they may rise, and how low they may fall. To be clear, the clusters are quite malleable and will undergo constant transformation throughout the week––it’s not uncommon for teams to move from one cluster to another. But the cluster method is nonetheless a useful tool.
Behold, the current clusters:
CLUSTER 1 Our three beautiful sons who can do no wrong
1 1 Purdue
2 1 UConn
3 1 Houston
CLUSTER 2 Fighting for fourth
4 1 Tennessee
5 2 Arizona
6 2 North Carolina
CLUSTER 3 Do any of them even want to be a 2-seed
7 2 Marquette
8 2 Baylor
9 3 Creighton
10 3 Iowa State
11 3 Duke
12 3 Kansas
CLUSTER 4 Taking Spokane and Pittsburgh by storm
13 4 Kentucky
14 4 Alabama
15 4 Illinois
16 4 Auburn
17 5 BYU
CLEMSON Clemson!
18 5 Clemson
CLUSTER 5 The bane of my existence
19 5 San Diego State
20 5 South Carolina
21 6 Dayton
22 6 Wisconsin
23 6 Nevada
24 6 Utah State
25 7 Gonzaga
26 7 Washington State
27 7 Boise State
28 7 Texas Tech
29 8 Texas
30 8 Saint Mary’s
CLUSTER 6 The annual 8/9 minefield
31 8 Florida
32 8 Colorado State
33 9 Nebraska
34 9 Florida Atlantic
35 9 Oklahoma
36 9 Northwestern
37 10 TCU
CLUSTER 7 Bubblicious
38 10 Michigan State
39 10 Virginia
40 10 Seton Hall
41 11A Mississippi State
42 11A St. John’s
43 11 Drake
44 11B Colorado
45 11B Indiana State
x1 OUT New Mexico
x2 OUT Villanova
CLUSTER 8 Mid-major murderers’ row
46 11 James Madison
47 12 Richmond
48 12 South Florida
49 12 Grand Canyon
50 12 Princeton
51 13 McNeese
THE ORDERLY GARDEN OF TRANQUILITY Thank you for forming a single file line
52 13 Samford
53 13 UC Irvine
54 13 Vermont
55 14 Col. of Charleston
56 14 Toledo
57 14 Oakland
CLUSTER 9 The infamous 14/15 backbreaker
58 14 Morehead State
59 15 Colgate
60 15 Sam Houston State
CLUSTER 10 The final consequential decision
61 15 South Dakota State
62 15 Montana
63 16 Quinnipiac
64 16 Longwood
CLUSTER 11 Brought to you by the Dayton, Ohio Chamber of Commerce
65 16A Stetson
66 16A Norfolk State
67 16B Merrimack
68 16B Grambling State
Outsiders Looking In
Teams on the wrong side of the cut line listed in order from first team out to sixteenth team out:
New Mexico
Villanova
Providence
Texas A&M
Butler
Utah
Wake Forest
Iowa
Pitt
Ohio State
Virginia Tech
Memphis
Kansas State
UNLV
Syracuse
Appalachian State
Also considered: Cincinnati, Oregon, Washington, UCF, VCU, NC State
Jake Liker's Bracketology 