Well, reader, judgment day is upon us. It is 1:42 AM pacific time as I type this and I need to go to bed, but I want to share with you where I’m at with this year’s final projections.
Saturday was the single most chaotic day of bracketology I’ve ever experienced, and I’m not alone:
I woke up on Saturday morning with a newfound sense of clarity. Utah had moved back into the top 50, giving St. John’s a fourth quad 1 win and in doing so, putting the Red Storm safely in the the tournament. I was convinced that Providence was going to be in the field. Six quad one wins (three in quad 1A) and zero bad losses––there’s no way the Friars were out. Indiana State dropped from 28th to 30th in NET, meaning I could leave the Sycamores out (as sad as that makes me) without violating my top-29-no-questions-asked policy. I just think it’s much easier for the committee to leave out a team in the 30s in NET than in the 20s, which has never been done before.
The bubble picture had come into focus. There were two at-large spots left and five teams were in the conversation: Providence, Virginia, Indiana State, Seton Hall, and Texas A&M, in that order. This is far and away the most competitive bubble I’ve ever had to deal with. All five of those teams deserve to be in the tournament and would be in if it were any other season. My hope was that FAU would snatch the American auto-bid from South Florida and free up a third spot for one of those deserving five.
I cracked and looked at the Bracket Matrix, which I try to avoid on Selection Sunday weekend until I’ve fully scrubbed my bracket, lest I be influenced by the crowd when making my initial assessment of the teams (I prefer to use the Matrix as a final step to make sure that I’m not completely off in my assessment of any given team). Most people did not have Providence in, and most people did have A&M in. Doubt started to creep in.
I was explaining the situation to my dad, telling him how it’s those five teams fighting for hopefully three spots, probably two, but maybe even one or zero depending on what NC State and Oregon do. And as I slowly began to agonize more and more over this decision, I made a comment to my dad, and somewhere a monkey’s paw curled: “part of me kind of hopes that all three spots get stolen just so I don’t have to choose between those five teams.”
Whoops! My bad y’all. Did not mean to speak that into existence. This sucks! And it brings us one step closer to tournament expansion. No thank you. (Okay maybe I’d be cool with expanding to 72 and making the last 8 at-larges go to Dayton but that’s a topic for another time)
Three new problems arise from this improbable twist of fate.
First, I’m now looking at St. John’s’ resume and I suddenly feel…uninspired. With Seton Hall and Providence both on the outs (as well as Villanova), the Red Storm now have just one win over a tournament team, a triumph at home over Creighton. Maybe I’ll wake up tomorrow morning and talk myself into putting someone else in the field. This isn’t five teams for zero spots, it’s six teams for one spot. But part of me thinks I shouldn’t block my blessings. I got what I (half-heartedly) wanted, the bids were stolen. We’ll see.
I got a DM on Twitter from a Texas A&M fan who wanted to know why the Aggies were on the bubble despite all their quality wins. [Sidebar: thank you to everyone who asked me something this week, it’s humbling to be seen as a source of authority on this subject. I’m enjoying it while it lasts]. I’m pasting some of my responses here because they capture my complicated feelings about Texas A&M’s resume.
On Friday I wrote: A&M’s problem is the quad 3 losses. They have an inordinately high number of [mistakes]. After Memphis took an L yesterday you guys are now at 5 Q3 losses. At large teams traditionally have a max of, like, 2 bad (Q3 or Q4) losses. Only other team in the running with more than that this season is Villanova with 3, and I think that’s gonna keep them out of the field.
And then on Saturday morning I wrote: I guess my general feeling about the Aggies is, I haven’t forgotten what happened a couple years ago. Enter the last week on the outside looking in, great run in the conference tourney, lose in the championship to Tennessee but everyone agrees they’re safe, shoot they’re not even gonna have to go to Dayton, and then BAM shock snub. Each season is independent from the others, but part of me feels a “fool me twice” type of way. I also think that, as I look at all these really good teams on the bubble, at least three deserving teams are gonna be left out. Don’t give me a reason to leave you out. A&M has the most obvious excuse to be left out, the 5 bad losses.
I’m a little scarred. I feel like I’ve seen this movie before.
What’s that you say? Memphis moved back into the top 75 in NET this morning, meaning Texas A&M now only has four bad losses? Astute observation, reader! That brings me to point B: the committee generally tries to have its entire field selected before they go to bed on Saturday night. Sunday is reserved for scrubbing the seed list and placing the teams in the bracket. In other words, the NET data entering Saturday is what really matters for bubble teams. Minor improvements in the Sunday data don’t matter, it’s too late. At that point, the committee has already determined if you’re in or out. This is especially cruel because GUESS WHO JUST JUMPED FROM 30TH TO 29TH IN NET???? That’s right, our Indiana State Sycamores. But it’s too late, I fear. Now that’s what I call Syc and twisted! (gimme a break it’s 2:49 AM and I’m exhausted)
Now for the second of the three problems that arise from the three bid-stealers: what seed line am I gonna put the last four in on? If Oregon and NC State are truly bid stealers––meaning, even with the wins over Colorado and UNC respectively, both of those teams will be ranked below the last at-large team in the seed list––they’ll both be 11 seeds. See Virginia Tech, 2022.
But the implications of that are really, really weird. The last four teams in would be ten seeds. Ten seeds! That’s never happened before, ever. Most at-large play-in games are between 11 seeds. Occasionally they’ll feature two 12 seeds. In 2012 we even had BYU vs Iona for a 14 seed. Ten seeds would be uncharted territory. Seeding those last four teams correctly can be a make-or-break in the Bracket Matrix, since it presents a rare opportunity to get five or even six teams correct on a single seed line. It’s like the moneyball rack in the three-point contest. Gotta sink your moneyballs.
The point is, I’m not sure if I’ll put NC State and Oregon on the 10 line to preserve the sanctity of the 11-line at-large cutoff. There’s no way we get a play-in game for a 10-seed, right? Right??
The third and final problem is minor but mildly infuriating: what the hell am I supposed to do with Temple if they beat UAB tomorrow? On the one hand, they’re a clear 16-seed. They have a losing record. Their NET is in the 180s. They may very well be implicated in a possible point-shaving scandal, the kind you only think you can get away with if your team is so bad and irrelevant that no one is actually paying attention to you. How did you to lose to these guys, FAU? Aren’t you supposed to be the superior Owls?
But on the other hand, there’s no way the champion of the American Athletic Conference is a 16-seed. Temple is too recognizable a name to be a 16. I am very much hoping that UAB takes care of them today. I don’t want to deal with this.
Two final nuggets before I finally call it a night.
Nugget number one, the most gut-wrenching decision I’ll have to make tomorrow is whether Colorado State or Nebraska should get the final 8 seed. On paper, the Rams deserve it. Metrics aside, Colorado State has the more impressive resume. But for some reason when I close my eyes and picture the bracket reveal tomorrow, I keep seeing Nebraska as an 8 and Colorado State as a 9. What would be harder to swallow, being wrong because I went purely off vibes despite my better judgment, or being wrong because I was too stubborn and ignored my intuition? Very difficult call.
Nugget numero dos, how about Long Beach State? Gloriously chaotic. 0-1 in quad 1 (a respectable 12 point loss to San Diego State), 3-2 in quad 2 (including wins over USC and Michigan), 7-5 in quad 3, 9-6 in quad 4. This is a team that has a 60% chance of winning any game, regardless of the opponent. They end the regular season on a 5 game losing streak, on Monday the head coach is told he’s getting fired at the end of the season, next thing you know they knock off the top 2 seeds in their conference to win the Big West tournament for the first time in 12 years. Congratulations to The Beach (extremely questionable rebrand, by the way), I’ll never understand it), thank you for manifesting the true meaning of March Madness.
Alright, that’s it. Next post will be the big one. Thank you, reader, for joining me this season. I’ve loved engaging with folks online and answering questions, and I hope you come back next year when I have more time on my hands to commit to bracketology. Happy March, and may the madness be ever in your favor.
Jake Liker's Bracketology 